Muskwatch — Tesla & Elon Promise Tracker

Muskwatch

Source

Yahoo Finance (real-time)

TSLA · NasdaqGS · USD

Refreshes every 60s

Stock Price

$382.20

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Formula

Market Cap = Price x Shares

$382.20 x 3.756B = $1.44T

Market Cap

$1.44T

3.756B shares

Formula

P/E = Price / TTM EPS

$382.20 / $1.09 = 351

TTM diluted GAAP EPS (Yahoo)

P/E Ratio (TTM)

351

TTM through Q1 2026

Formula

P/S = Market Cap / TTM Revenue

$1,436B / $97.9B = 14.7

TTM revenue through Q1 2026

P/S Ratio

14.7

TTM Revenue $97.9B

Next Earnings Report

Jul 22, 2026

After market close · Q2 2026 results

TSLA vs S&P 500 vs NASDAQ (% Change)

Revenue per Employee ($K)

Tesla Auto Industry Avg

Average Selling Price per Vehicle ($K)

Revenue by Geography ($B) — FY2025

Source: Tesla 10-K FY2025 geographic segments

Short Interest (% of Float)

3.0% Current (short % of float · Jul 2026)

Source: NASDAQ short interest reports, ORTEX

Insider Trading Activity

Date	Insider	Type	Shares	Value

Source: SEC Form 4 filings

Supercharger Network

Total Stalls

75,000+

Worldwide connectors

Stations

7,900+

~55+ countries

Recent Growth

~2.5K

stalls added Q1 2026

V4 Superchargers (up to 500kW class) deploying globally. NACS is the North American standard. Network open to non-Tesla EVs; ~25,000+ NACS-accessible stalls reported on Tesla.com.

Source: Tesla Supercharger / NACS pages, public network trackers (updated Jul 2026)

DCF Calculator — Implied Share Price

Revenue Growth Rate (%)

Discount Rate (%)

Terminal Multiple (x)

Implied Share Price

Base: TTM Revenue $97.9B, FCF margin 6.5%, 3.756B shares. 5-year projection. This is a simplified model for educational purposes only.

Price Alert Simulator

Target Price: $

Key Milestones Timeline

EV Competitor Comparison — FY2025 / Live Caps

Metric	Tesla	BYD	Rivian	Lucid
Revenue (FY)	$94.8B	$109.4B	$4.8B	$0.8B
Deliveries (FY)	1.64M	4.27M	51K	9K
Gross Margin	17.9%	20.4%	-5.2%	-112%
Net Income	$4.4B	$5.6B	-$4.7B	-$2.7B
Market Cap	~$1.44T	~$110B	~$12B	~$6B
P/S (TTM)	~14.7x	~1x	~2.5x	~7.5x
Cash	$36.6B	~$18B	$5.8B	$3.4B
H1 2026 deliv.	838K	—	—	—

Source: Company filings, SEC 10-K/20-F. Tesla market cap/P/S live as of Jul 2026; peer caps approximate.

Latest Update — H1 2026 Ops + Q1 Financials

Q2 2026 deliveries beat: 480,126 vehicles delivered (+25% YoY), production 451,758. Best delivery quarter in company history. Full financials due Jul 22, 2026.
Q1 2026 deliveries soft: 358,023 delivered vs 408,386 produced — inventory build. Revenue $22.39B (+16% YoY), GAAP EPS $0.13 / non-GAAP $0.41.
Energy mixed: Q1 storage 8.8 GWh (−15% YoY), then Q2 rebounded to 13.5 GWh. H1 storage = 22.3 GWh.
H1 2026 vehicles: ~838K deliveries (358K + 480K). On track to exceed FY2025’s 1.64M if H2 holds.
FSD miles: Tesla counter crossed 12 billion cumulative FSD (Supervised) miles on Jul 17, 2026 (~27M mi/day pace on last 1B).
Robotaxi: ~240 active vehicles across Bay Area + Texas; Miami commercial expansion reported early Jul 2026. Still far from ARK-scale fleets.
Valuation reset: TSLA ~$382 mid-Jul (from ~$450 year-end 2025). TTM P/S ~14.7x on $97.9B revenue; TTM P/E ~351x on $1.09 EPS.
Q4 2025 recap: FY revenue $94.8B (−2.9% YoY), 1.64M deliveries (−8.6%), energy 46.7 GWh, cash $36.6B.

Sources: Tesla IR Q1/Q2 2026 production releases, Q1 2026 Update, Yahoo Finance, FSD Safety counter · site refresh Jul 17, 2026

Earnings Call Highlights

FSD Miles Driven

Tesla FSD Safety Report · milestones via public trackers · @CernBasher

Cumulative FSD Miles

12.0B

as of Jul 17, 2026

Latest 1B Pace

37 days

~27M miles / day

City Miles

4.53B

hardest training data

Acceleration

Yes

7→8B took 53d · now ~37d

Cumulative FSD Miles (Billions)

Tesla FSD (Supervised) fleet · counter is estimated + periodically rebased

Days to Add Each 1 Billion Miles

Lower bar = faster accumulation. This is the “is it speeding up?” chart.

Annual FSD Miles Logged

Yearly volume · 2026 is YTD through Jul 17

Sources: Tesla FSD Safety · annual increments tracked by Sawyer Merritt / Teslarati · billion-mile intervals from public counter reads · latest 12B milestone @CernBasher Jul 17 2026. Tesla’s public counter is not real-time — it estimates daily growth and stair-steps when rebased.

Robotaxi Fleet Status

Data via RobotaxiTracker.com · Safety Tracker · ShadowMode

Active Fleet

~240

~168 Bay Area · ~72 Austin

Service Availability

~19%

of operating hours (est.)

Unsupervised (TX)

~25

Austin · Dallas · Houston

Live Markets

Bay Area · TX · Miami (+)

Fleet Growth (Estimated Monthly)

China NEV Market

Source: CPCA, CAAM, company IR filings

China Total NEV Sales (M units)

BEV + PHEV · Source: CAAM

Brand Growth Comparison (K units)

Revenue Comparison ($B USD)

Annual · RMB converted at avg annual rate · Source: Company annual reports (HKEX, SEC, SSE)

Net Profit / Loss Comparison ($B USD)

Annual · Negative = net loss · Source: Company annual reports

S-1/A IPO Terms

$135

555,555,555 Class A shares; applied ticker SPCX on Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas

Consolidated Revenue

$18.674B

FY2025; Q1 2026 revenue was $4.694B

FY2025 Profit Profile

-$2.589B

Operating loss; Adjusted EBITDA was $6.584B

Control

82.4%

Musk voting power after offering; Class B carries 10 votes/share

Source discipline: this page now uses Space Exploration Technologies Corp.'s May 20, 2026 S-1 and June 3, 2026 S-1/A unless a row is explicitly marked outside-S-1. The S-1/A recasts historical periods to include xAI and X because both were common-control transactions. SEC S-1/A

IPO Ratio Snapshot

Implied Market Cap

$1.432T

$135 x 10.607B pro forma shares

P/S Ratio

76.7x

Based on FY2025 revenue of $18.674B

P/E Ratio

N/M

FY2025 pro forma EPS was -$0.51

PEG Ratio

N/M

Standard PEG is not meaningful with negative earnings

Revenue growth charts show +34.9% in 2024, +33.2% in 2025, and +15.4% Q1 2026 YoY. The page also charts P/S divided by revenue growth as a rough growth-adjusted sales multiple; it is not a standard PEG substitute.

Annual history and Q1 2026 points are from the S-1/A. Percentage, margin, mix, and orbital launch-math charts are calculated directly from disclosed S-1/A values and assumptions. Starship launch-rate targets are outside-S-1 reported targets: 2028-2030 source / 2031 source. The S-1/A does not give dated 1GW/10GW/100GW orbital AI ramp targets.

Investor Checklist From The Filing

Upside: Starlink/Connectivity generated $4.423B operating income and $7.168B Segment Adjusted EBITDA in 2025.

Upside: Backlog was $27.621B as of Mar 31, 2026, including launch services, connectivity, and AI contracts.

Upside: Falcon 9 had approximately 620 orbital launches and over 99% mission success as of Mar 31, 2026.

Watch: FY2025 capex was $20.737B; Q1 2026 capex alone was $10.107B, driven heavily by AI infrastructure.

Watch: Space segment was loss-making in Q1 2026 as Starship R&D reached $930M for the quarter.

Watch: The filing says SpaceX does not maintain as much insurance as many companies; in-orbit satellites are currently uninsured.

Governance: Musk remains controlling shareholder; SpaceX expects to be a controlled company after the offering.

Structure

xAI → SpaceX

X was acquired by xAI effective Mar 28, 2025; SpaceX acquired xAI effective Feb 2, 2026

Integrated Reach

550M

Monthly active users as of Mar 31, 2026

Supported Accounts

1.3B+

Active in the twelve months ended Mar 31, 2026

Grok Usage

117M

MAUs used Grok AI features as of Mar 31, 2026

Boundary: the S-1/A reports X inside SpaceX's AI segment. It does not provide a standalone X valuation, employee count, or DAU figure, so those old estimates were removed.

X Ratio Boundary

Standalone P/S

N/A

No standalone market cap disclosed

Standalone P/E

N/M

No standalone net income disclosed

Standalone PEG

N/M

No valid P/E denominator exists

AI Segment Growth

+12.5%

Q1 2026 revenue growth YoY

X is not analyzed as a separately traded security because the S-1/A consolidates it inside SpaceX's AI segment. The charts show segment revenue growth and the disclosed X/Grok operating metrics instead.

The revenue and profitability charts are SpaceX AI-segment disclosures, not standalone X financial statements. Advertising remains meaningful, but AI solutions and infrastructure exceeded advertising in Q1 2026. Legal amount charts show disclosed matters only and are not a forecast of total exposure.

X + Grok Investor Notes

What X contributes: real-time data, consumer distribution, advertising inventory, and Grok product surface area.

What the filing emphasizes: AI revenue and operating margin, not standalone X MAU growth as the core objective.

Product surface: Grok is integrated across X, and Grok Business / Grok Enterprise are positioned for paying customers.

Usage signal: Imagine generated about 10B images and over 2B videos per month on average in Q1 2026.

Risk: advertiser demand, content-moderation regulation, platform trust, and competition remain material.

Risk: common-control transactions make historical comparability harder; the filing recasts all periods, but X was not always part of SpaceX.

AI Segment Revenue

$3.201B

FY2025; Q1 2026 was $818M

AI Operating Loss

-$6.355B

FY2025; Q1 2026 operating loss was $2.469B

Nameplate Compute

1.0 GW

COLOSSUS + COLOSSUS II as of Q1 2026

AI Capex

$12.727B

FY2025; Q1 2026 capex was $7.723B

xAI Ratio Boundary

Standalone P/S

N/A

No standalone xAI market cap disclosed

Standalone P/E

N/M

AI segment is operating-loss negative

Standalone PEG

N/M

No valid positive P/E denominator exists

Revenue Growth

+22.2%

FY2025 AI segment revenue growth

The S-1/A gives AI-segment revenue, costs, EBITDA, operating loss, capex, and compute metrics. It does not give standalone xAI shares, market cap, or net income, so standalone P/S, P/E, and PEG would be false precision.

These charts use S-1/A AI-segment disclosures. Derived orbital launch-math uses the filing's 100 kW/ton, 100 metric ton V3, 200 metric ton future-generation, 10GW/year, and 100GW/year assumptions. COLOSSUS next phase and Terafab are company-stated targets; Terafab projects, timelines, milestones, and capex were not determined in the filing.

Investor Checklist From The Filing

Upside: vertical integration across compute, models, X distribution, Starlink, and future orbital compute is the strategic bet.

Upside: COLOSSUS II expansion could add at least 220,000 GB300 processors and over 400 MW of compute power.

Upside: Terafab collaboration with Tesla and Intel has a long-term goal of 1 TW/year compute hardware manufacturing.

Watch: the S-1/A says Terafab projects, timelines, milestones, and capex were not yet determined.

Watch: xAI relies on third-party GPUs and critical components, with no long-term or material direct chip-supplier contracts disclosed.

Watch: Memphis/Southaven power, gas turbine, permitting, and environmental scrutiny are live execution risks.

Watch: the filing warns scaling laws may not continue and AI demand may not justify the capital spend.

Valuation

$9.6B

Series E, May 2025

Total Funding

$1.2B+

$650M Series E (May 2025) latest

Human Implants

US, Canada, UK, UAE

Employees

635

As of Mar 31, 2026

Funding History ($M)

Seed-B

$39M

Series C

$205M

Series D

$323M

Series E

$650M

$1.2B+ total. Investors: Sequoia, Lightspeed, Thrive, Founders Fund, GV

Human Implant Progress

Jan 2024

1 patient

Mid 2024

3 patients

End 2025

8 patients

Apr 2026

12 patients

Across US, Canada, UK, UAE. High-volume automated production announced Jan 2026

BCI Competitor Funding ($M)

Neuralink

$1,200M

Synchron

$145M

Precision

$102M

Blackrock

~$50M

Neuralink 8x more funded than nearest competitor. Blackrock has 40+ patients (9+ years)

BCI Market Size ($B)

2025

$0.35B

2030

$0.68B

Early TAM

$80B

Long-term

$400B

Morgan Stanley: 2.8M US patients addressable near-term. Enhancement market much larger

Financials

Revenue: Pre-revenue (clinical trial stage). Target $1B annual by 2031

Key Rounds: $205M Series C (Jul 2023), $323M Series D (Nov 2023), $650M Series E (May 2025)

Investors: Sequoia Capital, Lightspeed, Thrive Capital, Founders Fund, Google Ventures

Profit/Loss: Loss-making (R&D stage)

Operations

Founded: Jul 2016

HQ: Fremont, CA. New facility planned: Del Valle, TX (near Tesla Gigafactory)

CEO: Jared Birchall (also manages Musk family office). Key: Shivon Zilis (Dir Ops), DJ Seo (VP Eng, co-founder)

Ownership: Musk majority owner (exact % undisclosed)

Products: N1 implant (BCI chip), R1 surgical robot

Pipeline: Telepathy (thought-to-device), Blindsight (vision restoration), Deep (Parkinson's tremor treatment)

Clinical Progress — 21 Participants Enrolled

Total Enrolled: 21 participants (as of Jan 28, 2026) across 4 countries

Cumulative Usage: 2,000+ days, 15,000+ hours

Typing Speed: Avg ~14 WPM, peak 40 WPM

Serious Device Adverse Events: Zero reported

FDA Status: Breakthrough Device Designation. PRIME + VOICE trials active

2026 Plans: High-volume production, automated surgery, 3x capability next-gen implant, Blindsight first human trial

IDENTIFIED PATIENTS

#1 Noland ArbaughActive

Implant: Jan 29, 2024 · Barrow Neurological, Phoenix AZ

Condition: Quadriplegia (C4/C5 spinal cord injury, diving accident 2016)

Capabilities: Cursor control, chess, video games, web browsing. Beat 2017 world record for BCI cursor speed on day 1

Complication: ~85% of threads retracted weeks after surgery (trapped air in skull). Fixed via software algorithm. Stabilized

First: First human Neuralink implant. First livestreamed BCI chess game (Mar 20, 2024)

Study: PRIME (US)

#2 Alex ConleyActive

Implant: Jul 2024 · Barrow Neurological, Phoenix AZ

Condition: Complete spinal cord injury (C4/C5 vertebrae fracture)

Capabilities: Cursor control within 5 min. Counter-Strike 2 within hours. 3D CAD (Fusion 360). Flew RC airplane and drone with mind. Controlled robotic arm

Complication: None. No thread retraction (improved surgical technique)

First: First to control robotic arm. First 3D CAD via BCI. Broke world record for BCI cursor control

Study: PRIME (US)

#3 UnnamedActive

Implant: ~Jan 2025 · USA (confirmed by Musk Jan 8, 2025)

Device: N1 upgraded — more electrodes, higher bandwidth, longer battery

Status: "All are working well" — Musk

Study: PRIME (US)

#4 Mike MelgarejoHealth Declining

Implant: ~Feb 2025 · USA

Condition: ALS (diagnosed 2022). 44yo survey technician, San Diego

Capabilities: Briefly held full-time job using thought. First BCI patient to work full-time

Status: ALS progressing (not implant-related). By Jun 2025 "not in a good place mentally, financially, physically." Neuralink supportive

First: First Neuralink patient to hold a full-time job via implant

Study: PRIME (US)

#5 RJ (Paralyzed Veteran)Active

Implant: Apr 2025 · Miami Project to Cure Paralysis, University of Miami FL

Condition: Spinal cord injury from motorcycle accident

Capabilities: Smartphone/computer control, video games. Turned on TV himself for first time in 2+ years

First: First patient at The Miami Project (2nd US clinical site)

Study: PRIME (US)

#6 Unnamed (Former Dog Trainer)Active

Implant: ~Jun 2025 · USA

Condition: Quadriplegic after car accident (Dec 2022). Former dog trainer

Capabilities: Computer games and applications within 1 week of implant

Study: PRIME (US)

#7 UnnamedActive

Implant: ~Jun 2025 · Barrow Neurological, Phoenix AZ

Condition: Paralysis (details not disclosed)

Study: PRIME (US)

#8 Nick WrayActive

Implant: Jul 2025 · USA

Condition: ALS

Capabilities: Controlled robotic arm to feed himself (eat + drink). 8-hour work days. Operated wheelchair, opened fridge via thought. Moved 39 cylinders in 5 min, flipped 5 puzzle pegs. Microwaved meals independently

First: First ALS patient to self-feed via Neuralink robotic arm. Video got 20M+ views. Triggered 10,000+ ALS patients to join waitlist

Study: PRIME (US)

#9 Audrey CrewsActive

Implant: Jul 2025 · University of Miami Health Center FL

Condition: Quadriplegic since 2005 (C4-C5 compression, car accident, 20 years paralyzed)

Capabilities: Computer/laptop cursor, TV control. Can write her name and draw on computer

First: First woman in the world to receive a Neuralink implant

Study: PRIME (US)

#10-11 Two Canadian PatientsActive

Implant: Aug 27 + Sep 3, 2025 · Toronto Western Hospital (UHN), Canada

Condition: Both early 30s, cervical spinal cord injuries (Ontario + Alberta)

Capabilities: First patient controlled cursor by thought within minutes

First: First Neuralink surgeries performed outside the United States

Study: CAN-PRIME (Canada). Led by Dr. Andres Lozano. Up to 4 more authorized

#12 Paul (UK)Active

Implant: Oct 2025 · NHNN, UCLH London, UK

Condition: Motor neurone disease (MND/ALS)

Capabilities: Computer control with thoughts just hours after surgery. Games and daily independence

First: First UK patient to receive a Neuralink implant

Study: GB-PRIME (UK). Sites: UCLH + Newcastle. Up to 7 participants authorized

#13 Kenneth Shock (VOICE Trial)Active

Implant: Jan 2026 · USA

Condition: ALS

Capabilities: Translating thoughts into speech. Editing video. Computer control. All within weeks

First: First patient in VOICE clinical trial (speech restoration). Confirmed by Musk Mar 31, 2026

Study: VOICE (speech restoration — separate from PRIME). 20-30 planned by end 2026

Patients #14-21 (Unidentified): ~8 additional participants enrolled whose identities are not public. Likely include additional US patients (Barrow + Miami), UAE patients (Cleveland Clinic Abu Dhabi via UAE-PRIME), and additional UK/Canada participants.

ACTIVE CLINICAL TRIALS

PRIME (US)Barrow + Miami · 9+ implantedEnrolling

CAN-PRIMEToronto Western · 2 implanted / 6 maxActive

GB-PRIME (UK)UCLH + Newcastle · 1 implanted / 7 maxActive

UAE-PRIMECleveland Clinic Abu DhabiRegistered

VOICEUSA · 1 implanted / 20-30 plannedActive

BlindsightUAE planned · Vision restoration2026

Catalysts & Risks

▲ Expanded clinical trials — more patients, more countries

▲ Breakthrough Device designation speeds FDA path

▲ High-volume automated surgical implantation in development

▲ Morgan Stanley TAM estimate: $80B early, $400B long-term

▼ Neural inflammation (10% incidence in preclinicals)

▼ Signal degradation over time

▼ Long FDA timeline for non-medical use

▼ Ethical/regulatory barriers for enhancement use

Competitors: Synchron ($145M, no craniotomy), Blackrock Neurotech (40+ patients, 9+ years), Precision Neuroscience ($102M), Paradromics (wireless)

BCI TAM: $351M (2025), projected $684M by 2030. MS estimate: $80-400B

Valuation

~$5.7B

Down from $8.6B peak (Jul 2023)

Total Funding

$907M

$675.9M Series C (Apr 2022, Sequoia+Vy Capital)

Vegas Loop Riders

4M+

82K during CONEXPO Mar 2026 alone

Employees

679

As of Feb 28, 2026

Vegas Loop Expansion

2021 Launch

0.8 mi / 3 stn

Current

4.4 mi / 11 stn

Planned

29 mi / 51 stn

Airport connector targeting Q1 2026. Daily capacity target: 90,000

Cumulative Passengers

End 2022

~300K

End 2023

~1M

End 2024

~2M

Apr 2026

4M+

82K in one event (CONEXPO Mar 3-7, 2026). Target: 5-10M/yr with airport connector

Global Projects Pipeline

● Vegas LoopOperational

● Vegas Airport ConnectorConstruction

● Nashville Music City (10mi)Testing

● Dubai Loop (17km, 11 stn)Planned 2026

● Robovan Integration2028-2029

Financials

Revenue: Not disclosed. Estimated $50-200M (Vegas Loop fares + contracts)

Revenue 2026E: $200-500M if airport connector + new city projects launch

Profit/Loss: Likely loss-making or breakeven

Key Round: $675.9M Series C (Apr 2022). Led by Sequoia + Vy Capital

Investors: Valor Equity, Founders Fund, 8VC, Craft Ventures, DFJ Growth, Brookfield, Lennar, Tishman Speyer

Operations

Founded: Dec 17, 2016

HQ: Bastrop, Texas

President: Steve Davis (day-to-day since 2019). Musk: founder, strategic direction

Ownership: Musk ~80-90% (est). 6% held by SpaceX

Tech: Prufrock tunnel boring machine — goal of 1 mile/week

Products: Turnkey tunnel construction, Loop transit systems, software/control systems licensing

Projects

Vegas Loop: 11 stations operational, 4M+ cumulative passengers. Encore station opened Nov 2025

Vegas Expansion: Expanding to 29mi / 51 stations. Airport connector targeting Q1 2026. Daily capacity target: 90,000

Nashville: Music City Loop — 10mi, airport to downtown. Testing near Vanderbilt

Dubai: Dubai Loop — 17km pilot, 11 stations, targeting 2026

Future: Tesla Cybercab/Robovan integration in tunnels (2028-2029)

Catalysts & Risks

▲ Airport connector opening (massive ridership boost)

▲ Multi-city expansion (Nashville, Dubai)

▲ Autonomous vehicle integration (Tesla Cybercab)

▲ International projects (Dubai Loop)

▼ Scaling beyond Vegas unproven

▼ High upfront construction costs, long payback

▼ Regulatory/NIMBY opposition in new cities

▼ Competition from conventional transit (light rail, BRT)

Competitors: Herrenknecht, Robbins TBM (tunneling), monorails/light rail (transit), Uber/Lyft (ride-hailing)

Tunnel TAM: $27.7B (2025), projected $36B by 2029 (CAGR 6.8%)

Live News Feed

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Sources: Teslarati · Electrek · SpaceNews · Auto-refreshes every 10 minutes

Promise Accuracy Over Time (%)

Accuracy = delivered / (delivered + missed) for promises with that target year

Promises by Category

Promises by Status

FSD Promise Timeline (Gantt View)

Every FSD/autonomy promise mapped on a single timeline. Red = missed, green = delivered.

ARK Invest TSLA Price Target 2029

Bear

$800

Base

$1,400

Bull

$2,600

Source: ARK Big Ideas 2025 · Open-source model

Revenue Mix — Bull Case 2029

Robotaxi

$536B

63% of revenue · 7.5M fleet

Vehicle Sales

$204B

24% · ~12M units

Energy

$68B

8% · Storage + Solar

Insurance + Other

$42B

5% · Fleet data advantage

Key Assumptions

Robotaxi Launch & Scaling

ARK assumes Tesla launches unsupervised robotaxi in multiple US cities by 2026, scaling to 7.5M fleet vehicles by 2029.

Current reality (Jul 2026): ~240 vehicles in Bay Area + Austin (mostly supervised). Small unsupervised subset (~25) in Texas metros; Miami expansion reported. Only ~19% availability. Far from 7.5M scale. Risk: Regulatory approval, reliability, public trust. Waymo still leads unsupervised scale.

Revenue per Robotaxi: $71K–$100K/yr

Each autonomous vehicle generates $71K–$100K annual revenue through ride-hailing, assuming 50-70% utilization rate at ~$1/mile.

Comparison: Uber drivers average ~$40-50K gross revenue/year. Waymo charges $2-4/mile in SF. ARK assumes Tesla undercuts at ~$1/mile but runs 16+ hours/day. Key variable: Utilization rate. Current Tesla robotaxi utilization: ~19% of operating hours. Needs 3-4x improvement.

12M Vehicle Sales by 2029

ARK projects Tesla sells ~12M vehicles annually by 2029, up from 1.64M in 2025. Requires 7x growth in 4 years.

Growth needed: ~63% CAGR. Tesla's actual CAGR 2020-2025 was ~27%. Deliveries declined in 2024 (-1%) and 2025 (-8.6%), but Q2 2026 jumped +25% YoY to 480K. H1 2026 = 838K. New models needed: Cybercab, affordable volume car, refreshed lineup. Risk: Competition from BYD (4.3M in 2025), legacy OEMs, Chinese EVs.

FSD Adoption: 50%+ Take Rate

ARK assumes FSD subscription adoption reaches 50%+ of Tesla fleet as unsupervised driving proves reliable.

Current take rate: Estimated 5-10% of new Tesla buyers purchase FSD ($8K) or subscribe ($99/mo). ARK needs 5-10x increase. Catalyst: True unsupervised FSD would be transformative. Signal: 12B cumulative FSD miles as of Jul 2026. Blocker: Consumer FSD still Level 2 supervised for most users.

40%+ Operating Margin on Robotaxi

ARK assumes software-like margins on robotaxi revenue since Tesla owns the stack: hardware, software, fleet, and network.

Logic: Once FSD works, marginal cost per ride is low (electricity + maintenance). Tesla keeps ~70%+ of fare (no driver). Comparison: Uber takes 25-30% and is barely profitable. Waymo's unit economics are still unpublished. Risk: Insurance costs, regulatory fees, fleet maintenance could erode margins significantly.

Bear vs Bull — What Must Go Right

Bear Case ($800)

Robotaxi delayed to 2028+
Vehicle sales flat at ~2M/yr
FSD remains supervised
Margins stay compressed
Competition erodes market share

Bull Case ($2,600)

Unsupervised FSD works by 2027
Robotaxi in 50+ cities by 2029
12M+ vehicle deliveries
Energy becomes $50B+ business
Optimus begins generating revenue

Analysis based on ARK Invest's open-source TSLA valuation model (Feb 2025). GitHub Model

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